Influencer Marketing: where the chain of influence breaks

Word of mouth marketing works because the recommendation of a product or service comes from someone you trust or whose advice you have sought out. These people are your sphere of influence. However, a new study has shown some surprising results.

Nicholas Christakis of Harvard and James Fowler of UC San Diego have found that the ability of a person to influence another lessens greatly as degrees of separation mount; this probably doesn’t shock you. What is surprising, however, is that after the third degree of separation, there is no longer any evidence of influence.

Take this passage, as quoted from the Harvard Business Review:

A break in the chain of influence can ruin the viral campaign

“For example, the risk for smoking in a person connected to a smoker (that is, at one degree of separation) is 61% higher, on average, than would be expected as a result of chance. It is 29% higher if the friends of that person’s friends smoke, and 11% higher if the friends of the person’s friends’ friends smoke. By the fourth degree of separation there is no longer an increase in risk. To take another example, we have found that a person is 15% likelier to be happy if his or her friends are happy, 10% likelier if the friends’ friends are happy, and 6% likelier if the friends of those friends’ friends are happy.”

Its clear that WOM can only convert customers when that sphere is as close as 1 or 2 steps away. Successful viral marketing campaigns may have to be retooled to move beyond the break in the chain of influence. After a few degrees of separation, viral WOM waters down and may diminish in influence. Marketers will have to get creative to move beyond the inner circle.

The critical component will come in the finite tuning of position. A extremely targeted campaign that pushes cause related buttons will probably be the most effective.

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